Earthquake Preparedness and Probability

I live in San Francisco. Just a little over 100 years ago, the city was destroyed by an earthquake. Scientists are as sure as they can be that another major earthquake will hit San Francisco. A 62% of a 6.7 or higher in the next 30 years. I'll leave a discussion of exactly how this is calculated and what it means for a later post.

People are very, very bad at understanding probability and the math behind it. They don't grasp what this means. So let's put it another way:

If the forecast called for a 62% chance of thunderstorms tomorrow, would you take an umbrella with you?

You should. And likewise, all of us who live in the Bay Area need to be prepared for a major disaster on a daily basis. But most of us aren't.

Fortunately, I have some friends who recently held an "Armageddon Night", where we got together and talked about how to prepare for this stuff. We had someone from FEMA come and talk, and some presentations and discussions on earthquake preparedness.

Since then, I've started making real preparations. Flashlights and radios that don't need batteries. Extra food. First aid kits. Water. A "go bag" stashed in my car. I just need to get some important papers copied and I should be as set as I can be.

If you live in the Bay Area, you should make sure you're prepared, too. It's yet another thing to deal with. But having lived through the Northridge quake in Los Angeles, I know first-hand how much life can be disrupted by even a modest interruption in services.

The last time the power was out, how much were you annoyed? Inconvenienced? OK. Now the power is out. The water is out. The gas is out. The phone may be out. For several days.

The only thing you can do is to act now. So do it. And read Nassim Nicholas Taleb's "Fooled By Randomness".

Dr. Greg Kimble (1917-2006)

I just found out that Dr. Greg Kimble passed away.

You can read the link to his obituary above and read about his achievements in psychology, but that really doesn't provide a full picture.

Dr. Kimble had a profound effect on my life. I first met him in 1982, my second year at Duke University's Talent Identification Program. He was teaching Introductory Psychology. I had never had a teacher or classroom experience like Dr. Kimble's, and had never been so excited about learning. Nor had I been so challenged. I took the next class he taught ("Thinking, Knowing, and Problem Solving") without even reading the description.

When I finished my first class with him, I asked him to sign the textbook we used (which he had written with Norm Garmezy and Ed Ziglar - names I can rattle off 20 years later because I studied the book so much!). He wrote:

Anu - So much seems to be going on underneath the surface. Peace!

- Greg

Of course, he was right, and I've never forgotten his insight, pithiness, and brevity.

Over the next few years we had other interactions - I was asked to speak on TIP's behalf a few times, and Dr. Kimble (along with Dr. Robert Sawyer) was always there, smiling. I attended TIP's first alumni reunion, and he was there. Remembered us all. I eventually became the first alumni member to serve on the TIP advisory board, and he came to many of the meetings.

Dr. Kimble had an incredible capacity for caring for people. It's a cliché, but his smile really did light up a room. He also had a gravity and seriousness about him such that no one ever mistook his good charm and humor for lack of substance. He always treated everyone with respect.

He's why I teach at TIP. I strive to accomplish even half of what he did. I hope to inspire some bright kids to love learning, work hard, not give up, "become who they are", and find peace. I crib shamelessly from my memories of how he taught - the speech cadences, the different instructional methods. He was able to keep a room full of antsy teenage prodigies attentive and engaged for hours a day.

I knew this day would come, and he certainly lived a full life. But I mourn the loss of a great human being. I can still see twinkling eyes and charming smile, still hear his wonderful voice. And my heart breaks.

Nuclear Power

I have been pro-nuclear power since reading my first few ecology books back in the 1970s. The world is running out of oil (another thing I've been hearing since the 1970s). Burning coal and oil is directly contributing to global warming, pollution, and political and economic instability.

Nuclear power costs less. It emits no greenhouse gases. If our own uranium reserves aren't sufficient, we can buy uranium from Canada, which is acknowledged as having some of the largest. I'd rather send them our cash than some of the other places it goes.

Some other fun facts: Most coal has traces of uranium in it. So much coal is currently burned yearly that the total radioactive waste release from coal plants is much greater than that from even today's old reactors. And if that's not enough, the uranium that's "thrown away" in this fashion contains more energy than the burned coal trapping it.

I think people's objections to nuclear power amount to fear of catastrophe and fear regarding the waste. So what about those issues?

The world recently passed the 20th anniversary of the terrible accident at Chernobyl. Truly awful. But one bad disaster shouldn't scare people away from one of the many sources of energy we'll have to utilize. Look at the recent coal mine disasters, or look at the coal mines on fire and burning out of control. How many toxic oil spills have there been? Does anyone even pay attention to them anymore?

Safety improves when there are incentives and when it's a priority. Look at the abrupt, substantial changes that happened in airports after 9/11. Many people (myself included) may argue those changes are largely cosmetic and do little more than address the public's fear and perception. But the goal (removing fear) is still accomplished. And to be clear, nuclear power requires real, serious, rigorous safety measures in place. Nobody sane will argue with that.

People continue to be irrational regarding nuclear waste. Much money has been spent on WIPP - the legendary New Mexico nuclear waste repository that has yet to be opened. People say "it's not safe enough" - but it's the safest possible place and design humanity is capable of creating at this time.

And while the irrational people argue about WIPP's inability to absolutely, 100% guarantee safety for 10,000 years, where is the existing waste being stored?

The exact details are considered state secrets. But much of the waste is sitting in rusting drums in military facilities surrounded by little more than chain-link fences or in temporary storage at the originating plants. These temporary facilities are much worse than what WIPP, imperfect as it is, could offer.

We must all realize there are no "permanent solutions" to our energy needs. Our civilization will be playing technological "leapfrog" forever. Put the waste in WIPP for now, and keep working on finding a better solution. Switch to more nuclear power for now, and keep working on improving and developing better, cleaner, and greener sources.

Nuclear power won't solve all of our energy problems. It will create some new problems. And we still have to deal with oil - we can't just give it up overnight. But it's a start. There is no single solution to our energy problems. We have to chip away a little bit at a time.

Inevitably, people resort to the weak strategy of asking me "well, would you want a nuclear power plant in your backyard?" Of course not. I don't want an oil refinery, prison, garbage dump, airport, or strip mall there, either. Nobody does. That doesn't mean we shouldn't have nuclear power. And that doesn't mean that we all shouldn't be prepared to sacrifice a bit for safer, cleaner energy. I should probably start answering them with something like "I'd rather have a nuclear power plant in my backyard than blood on my hands (or someone else's hands)".

The NIMBYs who keep voting against putting wind farms in various places are especially offensive to me. There is no free ride, people.

Improving the Blog

As you may have noticed, I've spruced up the blog a bit. My HTML skills are extremely rusty, but I managed to get a few changes made:

• Dark gray background. Easier on the eyes than the straight black.
• Addition of some Rhapsody stuff - you can click on any of the album covers under "Hear Me" and get taken immediately to the Rhapsody stream. If you're not a Rhapsody subscriber, you can still play 25 tracks a month for free!
• Truncated the displayed bio and moved the rest of it to a post. Sort of a hacky solution, but it works.
• Added many new links and new link categories.
  

I'll be adding and modifying more in the future - adding more music and Rhapsody features as they become available and looking for other ways to keep the blog current.

If I had more than 3 readers, I might consider dropping the Google ads on the site, too.

Let me know what else you'd like to see/hear/experience! If you want linkage, drop me a line and let me know.

181!

I weighed myself today. 181!

More cardio to come.

Time and Life

Though it may seem as though I have been failing my New Year's resolution, rest assured I have been doing a lot.

My occupation has been keeping me, uh, occupied. Many good people left the company over the last 9 months - old friends and new. Several new companies came a-calling, wanting me to come and work for them. This resulted in a very long period of contemplating what the "right decision" would be -- which one of these fantastic jobs should I take?

I probably take too long to make up my mind, but I like to think things through. All of the jobs had good points and bad. I probably talked to almost everyone who might conceivably be reading this about my options (even if they didn't know it at the time!).

In the end, I decided to stay at RealNetworks. I received a promotion, more responsibility, and more work. I like a challenge. A few years from now I'll be able to decide whether or not I made the right choice. In the meantime, things are already getting better at work.

I also decided (and made a condition of staying at RealNetworks) to teach my music class at Duke TIP again this summer. This requires lots of preparation, especially since I haven't taught it in several years, and I try to make each year better than the last. I am compiling notes, reading some great new books, and working with my friend Adam Tober. That last bit is only slightly complicated by his living in Tokyo. But come July, I'll be flying to Durham for a month. I'll keep you posted from there.

I was lucky enough to see my brother a few times this year. He took a contract position with a video game company here in San Francisco, and was in town every other week. I really enjoyed seeing him so frequently - he is so very talented and smart. Unfortunately, his contract wasn't extended, so I probably won't see him in person for a while.

He's been doing a lot of music - a record he's been working on with his friend Tommy looks like it's getting picked up by a small, hip German label. In addition, my brother is almost finished with his own solo album, which I am dying to hear. What little of it I have heard was fantastic.

As for my own music, I've been doing some writing, too. CHILL finished a new collection in honor of the recent probe launch. We each chose a planet to compose music for. I did "Saturn" and "Jupiter". I wish I had more time to do more electronic music. Or even just get to know my tools better.

Also, Rich Trott (the artist formerly known as "Throb") has practically finished an album, most of which I recorded and engineered here at Blue Moscow. Looks like he's putting together a live band, and I think I am the designated bass player.

My friend Sid Luscious has written 5 new songs. I helped him out a bit with those, too.

The guy who used to be the bass player in my first band ever got in touch with me a few weeks ago. Turns out he's been living in San Francisco for years. It was great to see him and catch up. I hope to do some recording with him soon, too.

Wait, there's more.

2 weeks ago, I had my body fat measured. 22%. I need to lose 10 lbs. Like that's a surprise. The funny part was the gym guy said "all you need to do is 1 hour of cardio a day for...hmm, 2 months, and you'll hit your goal."

1 hour a day for 2 months. 60 hours. That's all. It sounded almost ridiculous, but given that my current workouts haven't been producing the results I wanted, I figured "can't hurt to try." So today was Day 10. Let's hope this works!

Anyhow, I will try to post more frequently. Next time: Adventures at Guitar Center!

Also it's been raining a lot. Boo!

The next music business

One of my New Year's resolutions is to create more. Among other things, that means more blog entries.

I recently put my last solo album up for sale on CDBaby.

CDBaby is a great site for musicians. For a nominal fee, they will act as a fulfillment center and billing processor - they'll sell your CDs for you and take a very modest cut while offering tons of great features. They provide streaming MP3 clips, a functional (if a bit ugly) page set for your product, and will even act as a digital distributor, getting your content into iTunes, Rhapsody, and the like.

CDBaby makes it much easier for people to sell their music online. I put up "Songs for the Last Man on Earth", which is nearly 10 years old. Within a week, someone bought a copy. I guess they liked it, because it looks like they proceeded to buy some other music I put up there.

I didn't promote "Songs for the Last Man on Earth" - all I did was upload it - and it sold. Theoretically, if word of mouth spread, I could keep selling it without doing anything else. The music would be effectively succeeding on whatever merits it may have. That is the closest thing to a musical Utopia we can hope for, and it is that dream that has driven much of my work over the last few years.

The "Songs for the Last Man on Earth" sale phenomenon isn't isolated, either. Back during MP3.com's heyday, I uploaded the whole Bastard Science Records catalog to MP3.com.

Among other things, the Bastard Science Records catalog included an ambient album I made as Captain Kirk ("The Shape of the Universe") to MP3.com. For about 6 months, I had half of the top 10 slots in the experimental genre and sold several hundred dollars' worth of CDs. Again, this was without any promotion whatsoever.

I received fan mail from around the world - Japan, German, New Jersey - places I would have never been able to reach.

Most people would call the acts on CDBaby and MP3.com "aspiring musicians" or "wannabe musicians" or "amateur musicians", but I think that both belittles their work and continues the lie that there's something very special about the major label artists.

There isn't.

Yeah, there's a lot of crap music up on all these sites. But there's also a lot of really good music, too. It's the finding it that's hard. Working on improving the mechanism for finding good music is my next professional challenge.

Today there are a variety of MP3 blogs, but the more successful these blogs become, the closer they edge to returning to what is effectively "major label content."

Word of mouth is still king - nothing beats someone you know telling you about a great new band. Your friends don't care whether something is signed or not, and if they make you a solid recommendation, you don't care either.

CDBaby and its ilk epitomize the next music business. Artists will be more able to focus on making music and have to worry less about distribution. Even marketing can be lower effort and more targeted.

William Gibson famously stated that "the future is already here, it's just not evenly distributed". The future is here in the form of Clap Your Hands Say Yeah - a band that topped many critic's lists this year and is doing very well on iTunes and Rhapsody. And they have no label. They are completely self-released, and arguably the first true Internet rock stars.

They'll probably parlay all this attention into a fat major label deal. But perhaps the next band won't.

Gazing into the abyss, or "The Digital Music Diaspora"

My friend Nick Sincaglia recently wrote a great blog entry about his company's acquisition and how it made him look back on the last few years.

At one point, he notes that 6 years ago, we were all punks trying to break into the music business and now, we are the music business. At least the exciting future part, or the place where some innovation happens and lots of media attention is focused. It seems like every week there's some sort of story about the music business - a level of attention and press "the biz" would have killed for pre-Napster. Odd they can't seem to take advantage of it. But I digress.

My point is that my friends and I kicked in a basement window and sneaked into the music business' house. From the start-up TuneTo.com and later, Listen.com, my colleagues are now highly placed at companies including Liquid Digital Media/Wal-Mart, Real Networks, Sony/BMG, Time Warner, and Apple. There's probably more.

I have known Nick for almost 10 years. Another colleague of mine, Tim Bratton, recently left Real Networks. I've been working with Tim since 1993. A compelling argument could be made that I owe my entire professional career to Tim. He provided me tremendous opportunities. He taught many things. How to create a costed bill of materials, how to write good specifications, how to be graceful under pressure. How to persist and never give up.

I am sad to see Tim go, though I completely understand his reasons. Were I in his shoes, those shoes would probably have walked out the door a long time ago. I will miss his optimism, patience, and perspective, and I wish him the best in his future endeavors.

In 1999, I taught my first class at Duke University's Talent Identification Program. I remember quite dramatically holding up a Diamond Rio PMP 300 and telling the kids that it would "change the world", and that in a few years, they'd all have something like that. It has come to pass.

Why all this reminiscing? I refer back to Nick's statement: "Now we are the music business".

I think of Nietzche - "Battle with monsters and beware, lest you become a monster. And as you gaze into the abyss, so the abyss gazes into you."

The High End

I've been working on a screenplay for the last several years about audiophiles. It's called "The High End", and it's a comedy.

People ask me "what's funny about audiophiles?"

Here's the answer.

The Definitive Guide to Evolver

I wrote this user guide for the Dave Smith Instruments Evolver.

Big Red

Melinda Moore, also known as Big Red, was one of the first people I met when I moved to San Francisco.

She's gone now and I find it hard to stop thinking about it. It appears to be suicide. While I've had several friends and acquaintances come close to this in the past, this is the first time it's touched me directly.

A new job

Today I start work at Real Networks as Senior Product Manager. This has been in the works for a long time (2-3 months).

I am very excited about working on Rhapsody (again).

I could write a book about the reasons why I left Liquid Digital Media and Wal-Mart (indeed, I started one about a year ago and had to stop). There are lots of talented people at both companies, and I wish them all the best. The team at Liquid, in particular, was the finest group of individuals I have ever had the good fortune to call colleagues.

Busy as a B student

I know I've been kinda quiet lately. In fact, I started a draft of this post almost a month ago and just haven't found the time to finish.

Most of my musical energy has been going into, uh, ghostwriting for a failed 80s pop star.

I have rediscovered the joys of pop songwriting and have been banging out tunes as fast as I can think of them, on the order of 1 every 2 weeks. The wonders and joys of home studio technology. My only limitations are time and creativity.

The best part of being in a rock band lately has been getting to know all the players better. Each of the guys in the current project is a quality human being. Where were they all 10 years ago?

Steve, for example, is someone I'd only known electronically for about 7 years. But now I consider him a close friend. He's made my life much richer than he knows (he's probably embarassed now. Ha!) He's also a sickeningly talented musician. Check out his latest album. The dude has got no mercy.

Naturally, I have a big itch to get back to doing more "challenging" or interesting work that isn't some variation of "intro/verse/chorus/verse/chorus/bridge/chorus/chorus". I still haven't figured out how exactly I'm going to find time or creative energy for this yet, but I am getting a little bit anxious to do something more modern than 80s-influenced pop songs for a 6-piece band.

Steve actually helped me re-discover David Sylvian, who's been doing some very interesting things with Ryuichi Sakamoto and Christian Fennesz (who are also working together!), among others. I just read an interesting interview with him in "Guitar Player".

Being married is still the best thing in the world.

The long and expensive process of renovating the front of the house is all but finished. Paint is up. We're just waiting for final inspection and some finishing touches.

I bought myself a new motorcycle (Ducati Multistrada 620) for my 36th birthday. Perhaps a bit extravagant, but business has been good. And it gets 50 miles per gallon of gas.

I wish Chill would do a full-on disc release.